iPhone 4 wasn’t much of a surprise to anyone paying attention. I think this FaceTime mobile videochat is the biggest news (of course his “one more thing”) — it has vast implications for mobile communications of all sorts (and the notion of telepresence, in general). Will consumers fall for FaceTime? That’s the big if. If so, then we are probably officially “in the future.” If anyone could deliver ubiquitous videochat, it would have to be Apple.

The Bad News

Apple still doesn’t have a cloud service (eg., Google Docs) — that’s really holding them back. I was disappointed that rumors of a new cloud product didn’t emerge. This would allow all your files and media files to be synced over wireless and we can ditch that USB cable leash. The iPad really stinks without this capability. To add insult to injury, AT&T’s data-plan repricing will keep us tethered to WiFi and our PCs for some time to come. Let your iPhone share its 3G connection to your iPad? Fuhgettaboutit.

The Good News

I would agree that Apple’s competition simply cannot keep up with this rapid pace of development. Apple has managed to compress the development cycle down to a year and still manage to release consistently significant products that push the whole industry to innovate, and hopefully we all benefit. The cost of the software continues to go down, the revenues for developers go up, and the quality of the experience gets better and better.

The Prediction

No Verizon (and/or Sprint) iPhone until mid-2011, earliest.

Today’s big announcements at Adobe MAX signal bold moves to strengthen the reach of the Flash Platform while simultaneously heading off Apple’s reluctance to offer the plugin in Mobile Safari. By allowing Flash Professional CS5 to export to native iPhone app code, Adobe wins big by giving its massive author base the means to get in on the App Store action. As a Flash developer myself who has made repeated but ultimately failed attempts to tackle Cocoa Objective-C this is very welcome news. When you’ve spent years in one language, the brain gets hardwired and is resistant to learning something so radically different. Plus, Flash developers invested so heavily in the platform, it’s a bitter pill to swallow and drop it all in favor of being locked into Apple’s ecosystem.

However, allowing Flash designers to bulld iPhone Apps means that we will see abuses of human interface guidelines and a deluge of submissions into the approval process. We can expect Apple to push back on this in whatever way they could to preserve the brand integrity of the iPhone experience.

In terms of expanding the Flash Platform into greater ubiquity, the announcements of RIM, Google and Palm joining the Open Screen Fund heralds an imminent reality where Flash content will run just about everywhere except in the iPhone Mobile Safari. By 2011, those blue question mark icons that appear where Flash browser plugin content is supposed to run will likely become a marketplace liability for Apple. Indeed, when customers can enjoy Flash enabled websites that work on every device except Apple’s, we finally imagine a scenario where not supporting Flash in Safari could actually affect sales. The demonstration of Flash Player 10.1 working very nicely on a Palm Pre underscored this notion.

Before today, I was thinking that the centrality of Flash as a de facto multimedia “standard” was in question. These thoughts were inspired by the advent of the App Store and improved web standards browser implementations such as CSS, HTML, JavaScript, and the CANVAS and VIDEO elements. However, after today, my confidence in Adobe’s ability to maintain strong support for the Flash platform is renewed by their clever responses to the shifting marketplace by resisting the force of fragmentation or at least channeling it into their advantage.

Flash haters like Gruber will remain skeptical and vaunt the merits of standards and Cocoa over Adobe’s assets. But the truth remains that there is a massive author base that knows Flash and an even larger consumer base that expects Flash content to run on their smartphones.

Video spoof of Mythbusters that Flash isn’t on the iPhone
FAQ for developers

Since writing this post, it appears that AT&T has disabled the USSD service reminder messages for Medianet prepaid data packages. Icing on the cake: they also opened the 3G faucet. Considering these significant improvements to the value proposition of GoPhone, we’re down to 3 reasons.

One can only surmise that executives schemed these crippling aspects to AT&T’s GoPhone prepaid offerings to exploit every inducement towards a “postpaid” (ie. 2 year contract) plan.

I’ve been trying to equip unlocked Nokia devices with prepaid data accounts for benevolent design research purposes integral to my work at Parsons on mobile media design work for grant funded projects.

1. Relentless balance reminders. Even with a $20 100MB package for a month’s worth of data access, you are barraged with irritating and intrusive balance reminder service messages, after every single use. You’ll need to click to dismiss the message after every text message and every data connection, and certainly when data intensive apps are running in the background, such as Google Maps with Latitude. These USSD messages, apparently, cannot be disabled by a customer service representative. Clearly, they are an intentional annoyance disguised as a customer service to coerce you into a 2 year contract, or flee to a competitor.
   Update ISSUE RESOLVED

   

2. No 3G data support. Online chatter can be found espousing the merits of enjoying pre-paid 3G data, but the phone company was listening. These comments remain mythical and historical musings, as GoPhone data only supports 2G (EDGE GPRS only), as of this writing, no matter how much you’d be willing to pay. Again, they’ll be happy to convert your account to a “postpaid” commitment in order to subscribe to 3G data.
   Update ISSUE RESOLVED
3. No unlimited data offering. The same online whispers that spoiled the party on 3G prepaid data probably cued AT&T to cap its data offering to 1MB and 100MB denominations. Of course, this never implied tethering, although many forumistas falsely claim that prepay is the ultimate loophole.
4. No visual voicemail on iPhone. At least without doing naughty things like jailbreaking, it is reported that visual voicemail is not supported on a pre-pay GoPhone plan and SIM in an iPhone. To not have visual voicemail on an iPhone is like having a PBJ without the first ingredient. Apparently, the executives responsible for upholding the 2 year contract conspiracy agree.
5. No international roaming (beyond Mexico). Although the prepaid target market is clearly revealed by this sales policy, it dissolves the possibility of being able to keep a prepaid globetrotter number and bounce around the Earth’s sublime GSM network based on the à la carte reality of travel — it’s occasional and ad-hoc, not a feature to add to a monthly plan.

Research suggests that T-Mobile is the better choice for prepaid services in the United States. At the minimum, they do not employ the dealbreaker balance reminders, which is enough reason for me to expend my remaining balance and get a new number from the local German provider of mobile telephony. Those Europeans sure know a thing or two about running a mobile phone infrastructure. But there are so many reasons why telecom (and law enforcement, for that matter) will always keep prepaid mobile telephony a stinky deal.